Bear Trader text messaged alerts to subscribers to primarily trend (2-4 days) trade short or inverse market index ETFs. Subscribers also receive alerts to trade long market index ETFs at major market bottoms.  

The Bear Trader’s alerts are primarily derived from parent, Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT), an algorithm with a proven track record for substantially outperforming the market since 2018. Due to the heightening of volatility after the new secular bear market began.

In March of 2020, all of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s alerts became available exclusively to registered investment advisors. The Bear Trader subsequently became the exclusive provider of a portion of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s alert to subscribers. See Bear Trader “News”.

Bear Trader’s mission is to provide subscribers with opportunities to generate a net minimum of 100% of aggregate trading gains through the fourth quarter of 2022, which is when the markets have been forecasted to reach their final bottoms by the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm. Since the Bear Trader is in 100% cash for a majority of the time, it’s an ideal investment vehicle for the defensive investor.  

The table below depicts that for the 11 months ended May 31, 2020, the BBT’s signals to trade the S&P 500’s long (symbol: SPY) and short (symbol: SH) ETFs gained 91.3%.  This compared to a gain of 5.3% for the S&P 500.  Note that in the table below, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s best months were those in which the S&P 500 declined and had its worst months.

Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) automated SPY/SH

signals vs. S&P 500, July 2019 – May 2020

Month S&P 500 % chg. Bull & Bear Tracker
% chg.
May-20 4.50% 8.60%
Apr-20 12.70% 14.10%
Mar-20 -12.50% 29.30%
Feb-20 -8.70% 9.80%
Jan-20 0.00% 5.30%
Dec-19 2.90% 0.80%
Nov-19 3.40% 5.90%
Oct-19 2.00% 1.50%
Sep-19 1.70% 4.80%
Aug-19 -1.80% 9.80%
Jul-19 1.10% 1.50%
Totals 5.30% 91.30%
For BBT track record from 04/09/18 to 6/30/19 click here.


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Bear Trader also leverages the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm.  The SCPA forecasts the dates of and the degree of the percentage changes for the peaks and valleys during the 30 to 32 months after a market has crashed.  The table below contains three of the SCPA’s accurate forecasts for the crash of 2020.

Forecast date Forecasted events for 13 countries Date Forecast accurate
3/09/20 Minimum declines of 34% by 3/21/20 3/18/20
3/23/20 Interim bottoms on 3/23/20 3/24/20
3/24/20 Minimum 18% rallies of interim bottoms 3/26/20


The SCPA is forecasting the following for the markets of 13 countries afflicted by the crash of 2020:

  • Declines of 79% to 89% below 2020 highs by Q4 of 2022.
  • Potential trading gains of 300% for savvy traders who trade market short or inverse index ETFs during markets’ journeys to their final bottoms.

For more about the SCPA’s above forecasts for the markets of the 13 countries:

  • See home page.
  • See SCPA related articles pag
  • Click here to learn about SCPA and Bull & Bear Tracker algorithms and their developer.

Bear Trader was conceived in March 2020 because of the following:

  • Significant increase in market volatility increased the risk for subscribers to trade all of the BBT’s long and short signals. Read article
  • Secular bull market which began in 2009 ended and was replaced by the ninth secular bear since 1802. Read article.  
  • BBT decision to no longer make all of its long and short signals available for subscription. Read article.    

The table below depicts all of the alerts sent to subscribers by the Bull & Bear Tracker for the behalf of Bear Trader from March 3, 2020 through May 29, 2020.  Bear Trader alerts produced a net gain of 14.72% from trading the Dow Jones and S&P 500 unleveraged ETFs (symbols: DOG, SPY, SH).  This compared to a decline of 2.0% for the Dow Jones 30 industrials index and an increase of 1.4% for the S&P 500.


Bear Trader’s published signals performance
for March 3, 2020 to May 29, 2020

Date End date Days @ risk Symbol % change Symbol % change
3/18/20 3/18/20 1 SPXL -6.0% SPY -2.10%
3/23/20 3/25/20 3 SPXL 44.3% SPY 14.71%
4/14/20* 4/16/20 3 SPXS 3.7% SH 1.23%
4/17/20 4/17/20 1 SPXS 2.3% SH 0.76%
4/28/20 4/29/20 2 SDOW -2.9% DOG -0.98%
5/1/20* 5/4/20 3 SDOW 2.6% DOG 0.86%
5/6/20 5/7/20 2 SDOW 1.2% DOG 0.41%
5/29/20* 5/29/20 1 SDOW -0.5% DOG -0.17%
Total N/A 16 N/A 44.70% N/A 14.72%

*50% invested

The table below includes the performance statistics for the Bear Trader’s and the Bull & Bear Tracker’s SPY, SH and DOG index ETF trades and trading days as compared to tradeable days in market from March 3 to May 29, 2020.

Bear Trader and Bull & Bear Tracker statistics for S&P 500 (SPY, SH) and

Dow Jones 30 (DOG) ETF signals/alerts, March 3, 2020 – May 29, 2020

Publisher Signals/alerts days/total tradeable Net % gain
Bear Trader 8 16/62 14.72%
Bull & Bear Tracker 30 62/62 43.70%

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From March 3 to May 29 of 2020 the Bull & Bear Tracker’s automated signals to trade SPXL and SPXS ETFs generated a net gain of 130.8% vs. Bear Trader’s gain of 44.7%.   To engage a registered investment advisor to trade all of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s long and short signals click below.